US President Donald Trump has said he does not think the Iran war will end until after November's midterm elections, adding that oil prices will not come down until then.
Why does Trump link the Iran conflict end to the November midterms?
Trump told reporters that Iranian leaders cannot sustain the fighting beyond the election date. He said the war would finish immediately afterward because they are desperate to influence the vote in favour of Democrats. No evidence was offered for the claim that Tehran seeks to affect the outcome. The president repeated the point at the Texas convention, arguing short-term economic pressure is justified to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. He described the leaders as unable to hold out any longer and claimed they want a weaker administration installed so they can keep pursuing a nuclear weapon. The remarks came as he headed to the Republican Party's first midterm election convention in Texas. Trump added that Iran was desperate to try and affect the election so that a nice weak group of people could be installed and leave them alone to have their nuclear weapon. He provided no proof of the election claim and noted that further negotiations with Iran could possibly happen but it is not something being looked at actively. At the convention Trump echoed the same lines while facing pressure from within his party to end the war quickly.
How have oil prices and shipping routes been affected?
Brent crude reached $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July. US diesel also hit a record high earlier in the week. Iranian attacks have forced production halts in Gulf states and disrupted exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The US has maintained a naval blockade on Iranian ports and begun striking Iranian tankers. Trump predicted prices will fall sharply once the war ends, though he noted the decline may take slightly longer than the election itself. The price of Brent crude oil has risen above the $100 mark three times over the past six months because of the attacks and stoppages. Rising fuel costs have also prompted predictions of higher interest rates. Right after the election oil prices are going to be tumbling downward he told reporters while acknowledging the price of oil would tumble as soon as we win the war with Iran. The conflict and its knock-on effects on everything from fuel to groceries has led to a steep decline in approval ratings. The price of oil hit $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July after US and Houthi strikes intensified pressure on shipping lanes.
What recent military actions occurred in the Gulf region?
On Tuesday night the US military said it had attacked and destroyed five oil tankers with ties to Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps in the Gulf of Oman and the northern Gulf. The IRGC stated its naval forces attacked two US Navy destroyers and eight oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz causing heavy damage. Centcom denied its warships were hit. The IRGC also said it had launched ballistic missiles at US military maintenance facilities hangars and aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Jordan's armed forces said they intercepted 20 Iranian missiles and that two other missiles fell in unpopulated areas with no casualties reported. Later reports indicated one A-10 aircraft lost a wing and about eight F-15s sustained light damage at the base. Explosions were reported in southern Iran on Wednesday night but Iranian official sources denied they were US strikes saying the sounds came from the sea. The US has also imposed a naval blockade on Iran's ports and has recently begun striking Iranian tankers in response to attacks on warships and other vessels.
How has the wider Middle East conflict developed?
The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched missile and drone attacks on south-western Saudi Arabia igniting fires at oil facilities. Saudi media reported further strikes on Khamis Mushait Abha and Jazan on Wednesday. The Houthis described the actions as retaliation for Saudi air strikes in western Yemen after a four-year informal ceasefire collapsed. The original US and Israeli strikes on Iran began in February and quickly expanded across the region as Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at Israel and Arab states hosting US military facilities. Fighting has intensified in recent days as oil facilities throughout the region come under attack. The conflict rapidly spread across the Middle East with Iranian attacks forcing production stoppages in Gulf states and disrupting exports through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway. The war is now in its seventh month after the president initially predicted it would last only weeks.
What domestic political pressures is Trump facing?
Trump's approval ratings have fallen because of higher fuel and grocery costs linked to the conflict. Some Republican supporters have expressed frustration at the war. Historically the president's party loses seats in midterms and Republicans risk losing Congress on 3 November. Trump used the Texas convention to rally the party while acknowledging voter complaints about gasoline prices. He said guys come up to him and say they wish he had not started the war because gasoline is up. The conflict is now in its seventh month after the president initially predicted it would last only weeks. At the convention in Texas Trump echoed lines about the price of oil tumbling as soon as the war is won while facing pressure from within his party to end the war. Midterm elections will be held on 3 November and Republicans are in danger of losing control of Congress.
Frequently asked questions
Did Trump provide evidence that Iran is trying to sway the US election?
No supporting evidence was presented in the statements. The claim remains an assertion by the president.
Has Iran confirmed it seeks nuclear weapons?
Tehran has repeatedly stated its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only and denied any weapons intent.
When did the current phase of the conflict begin?
Direct US and Israeli strikes on Iran started in February; the fighting is now in its seventh month.
Are further talks with Iran planned?
Trump indicated negotiations remain possible but said they are not currently under active consideration.
What is the next scheduled political event?
Midterm elections are set for 3 November with Republicans seeking to retain congressional majorities.
Key takeaways
- Trump stated the Iran conflict will end immediately after the 3 November midterms.
- Brent crude exceeded $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July.
- US forces struck five Iranian-linked tankers; IRGC reported strikes on US vessels and a Jordan base.
- Houthi attacks hit Saudi oil facilities breaking a four-year informal ceasefire.
- Trump faces declining approval and Republican calls to conclude the war before the vote.
Outlook
The statements set expectations that any resolution is tied to the electoral calendar. Market analysts will watch Gulf shipping data and any further naval incidents for signs of escalation or de-escalation before November.